Predictions for Election 2008As of Thursday, August 21, 2008,
10 AM Pacific Time
[Once Obama announces his VP this Blog entry will be locked, and no further changes will be made.]
Predictor’s Name McCain’s VP Obama’s VP Next President %Anon 1... Tom Ridge Bayh McCain See Comments below
Charlie J... Gov Crist Joe Biden Obama 54% pop vote
David -- -- -- Comments
Doug C... ---- Biden Obama Obama 51% McCain 48%
Jean M... Tom Ridge Sam Nunn Obama of course 53%
John S and Janie D... Charlie Crist Joe Biden Obama Comments
Ken H... Romney (ugh…!) Senator Bayh (shame on you!) Obama Comments
Margot M... Romney Bayh Obama It will be close (see Comments for update)
Maryland Anon... -- -- -- Comments
Michael D... Pawlenty Bayh McCain Comments
Michelle S...Romney Biden Obama Comments
Takashi Mitt Romney Chet Edwards Obama % 52 (51.5~52.4)
Vic M... Tim Pawlenty Tim Kaine Obama Comments
Comments (arranged alphabetically by predictor’s name):Charlie J. I’ve hosted this prediction thing for years, since my earliest days living in the Nation’s Capital. I have almost always been wrong (yes I correctly picked Clinton 2x but that was a rare happening!). Gee, could it be that the GOP has been in the ascendant for most of my adult life? Anyway, it’s always great seeing the clear thinking of others. I hope the predictions are wrong about voters carrying racism into the voting booth.
Anonymous 1: 1) Even though Dick Cheney will try to get on the ticket again, McCain won't stand for it. He'll pick Tom Ridge.
2) Even though Bill Richardson is ready to be President now, and Hillary will try to get on the ticket to payoff her campaign debts, Obama will choose Evan Bayh.
3) I think McCain will win, because I'm afraid we have far more closet racists that the pollsters believe. They will reason this way: better the WASP we know, than the black we don't. Besides, they'll think, we'll give him a Democratic Congress, so what more harm can the old guy do?
David: Your political quiz is too hard for me. We are just hunkered down, worrying about why, given the economy, the neglected environment and health care, the wars, and the usual urge to throw the bastards out after eight years, this is not a slam dunk election for Obama. Our fear is the Tom Bradley factor: lots of those “undecided” voters are unwilling to tell the pollsters that they won’t ever vote for a black man, regardless of his merits and his opponent’s creepiness. Keep your fingers crossed….
John S and Janie D: Hi Woody, Great to hear from you. Hope you'll visit us in FL this year so one of us can collect on the contest. Comments on our Florida governor: Charlie Crist is okay for a republican. He announced a couple weeks ago, he was getting married which led me to believe he was the VP choice. I think he is gay from what I hear. If so, it's too bad he can't be up front. Maybe I'm all wrong. I know several critics have said he would not be elected because he was single...always has been. He is so much better than the last guy in office. Electoral College %: 55% for Obama
Ken H. Woody, here are the true and accurate answers! What will be my reward? Personal satisfaction will come from all my hard work…. What else can you offer? Popular vote will be 52% Obama, 47% McCain and 1% other. Of the 538 electoral college votes, Obama will take 330 to McCain’s 208.
Margot M. Aug 20th update: I now think it will be either Pawlenty or Huckabee for McCain. There is strong NPR buzz about Biden who will be introduced by Obama as "clean and articulate."
Maryland Anon: “Masters of the Big Lie” I used to think that his race was Obama's only impediment to victory. Now, I no longer believe that. Ultimately, his race won't be the deciding factor. Instead, as is almost always the case, Obama will be perceived in the public consciousness the way that the Re-puke-licans want him to be perceived. THEY define their opponent's character and aura.
It's also not a question of policy, priority, important issues, etc, etc. Rather it goes back to God, Guns, Guts, Gays....one of the Re-puke's best examples of succinctly framing the "red meat " issues which the lumpen proletariat ( to use Marx' description ) cling to. Only this year it'll be 5 G-words, to also include Gas. Americans care more about their right to cheap gasoline----like cheap beef in Argentina---than most any other thing right now.
Whatever happens, a lot of this sturm und drang goes back to Karl Rove. He is a warped, evil, perverted, megalomaniacal genius, alas.
Well, I only have one vote, but I can talk to all of my friends and acquaintances. Oh yes, one more thing: voter intimidation. That's how Ohio was STOLEN in 2004. And the closer the election the easier it is to steal it. You only need a percentage point's worth.
Michael D: Election winner: as of today, and I've been reading TONS of analyses, McCain, by a " hair."
Michelle S: Oh boy! This question is getting tougher as the weeks pass. How could the race be so close? Gas at $4, Heating oil at $4.75?gal ( I just ordered some so I know), $10 Bill/mo in Iraq, a depleted military, our healthcare system and not the least of which the deaths of so many of our young soldiers. Where are these McCain supporters coming from? As one of my favorite comics, Lewis Black, would wonder "are these people capable of "THOUGHTS"'. I predict Obaba by a very slight margin. HIs volunteers have been busy here in NH. One I met recently, a lovely lady from Texas, here for two weeks. As you probably could guess, NH has lots of "Redneck" country. There most definitely is racial predjudice here, although most who have it will deny that they do. Who knows what will happen when the get into the booth. Let's hope for the best!!! Michelle
Vic M: Running mates will be Tim Pawlenty and Tim Kaine. The tintinabulation of the Tims. (Or, as Edgar Allen himself might have written it, the Tim-Tim tabulation will be swell!) Obama will win with 66% of the electoral college votes.
P.S. Q: Did you hear that Putin has picked out a new name for South Ossetia?
A: Russia.
An internal White House draft document obtained by The Associated Press reveals that up to 225 days of e-mail messages dating back to 2003 are missing. (Photo: Paul Morse / White House)
